Eskendereya favored in final Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/24/2010 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fountain of Youth champ Eskendereya has been installed as the 5-1 morning-line favorite for the third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager of 2010. The final Future Wager begins Friday and runs through Sunday.

There are 24 available betting interests in the pool, 23 individual horses and the mutuel field. Wagering starts at noon (et) Friday and concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).

Eskendereya won the Fountain of Youth by more than eight-lengths at Gulfstream Park last month. He is being pointed to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

The 6-1 second choice is Rebel Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky. The colt is expected to make his next start on April 3 in the Santa Anita Derby.

The mutuel field, which includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool, is 8-1 in the morning-line.

The 136th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 1 at Churchill Downs.

Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:

1. Aikenite 50-1

2. Alphie's Bet 15-1

3. Awesome Act 15-1

4. Caracortado 20-1

5. Connemara 20-1

6. Conveyance 20-1

7. Discreetly Mine 20-1

8. Dublin 15-1

9. Eskendereya 5-1

10. Homeboykris 50-1

11. Ice Box 12-1

12. Interactif 20-1

13. Jackson Bend 30-1

14. Lookin At Lucky 6-1

15. Make Music for Me 30-1

16. Noble's Promise 12-1

17. Odysseus 20-1

18. Pleasant Prince 20-1

19. Rule 20-1

20. Schoolyard Dreams 30-1

21. Sidney's Candy 15-1

22. Super Saver 20-1

23. Tempted to Tapit 50-1

24. All Other 3YOs (field) 8-1

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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